adminThe U.S. stock market’s surge to record levels in recent days has prompted President Joe Biden to jab at former President Donald Trump for predicting a Biden administration would mean catastrophe for equities.
In a social-media post on Friday, Biden wrote, “Good one, Donald,” in reference to Trump’s having said during the 2020 White House race: “If Biden wins, you’re gonna have a stock-market collapse the likes of which you’ve never had.”
But while there’s been no collapse, how is the stock market’s overall performance under Biden?
Market Snapshot: Dow opens slightly lower on Wednesday after notching 5th straight record-high close
As of Friday’s close, U.S. stocks — as tracked by the S&P 500 index
SPX
— had gained 22.5% since the Biden inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021. It’s a sizable rise over about two years and 11 months, especially as the gauge lost ground in 2022, tumbling 19.4% during that year, when it was hurt by the Federal Reserve’s push to raise interest rates in order to fight inflation.
The advance of 22.5%, however, isn’t as strong as what most other recent presidents had enjoyed by this point in their terms, just shy of the three-year mark. That’s shown in the below table, which is based on Dow Jones Market Data.
The research team at Wilshire Indexes flagged in August that U.S. stocks so far haven’t fared as well under Biden as they did in Trump’s single term or in either of Barack Obama’s two terms.
“With the 2024 election in sight, the disparity in cumulative equity return generated so far under the Biden administration compared [with] the superior return trajectory delivered by the Trump and Obama presidencies could cause some concern,” Philip Lawlor, managing director of market research at Wilshire Indexes, wrote at that time. “Electoral cycle logic points to the Biden administration doing its utmost to ensure that the gap closes next year.”
Biden’s stock-market track record could look better against Trump’s in a few months as 2020, the last full year of the Republican’s single term, gets included in any comparisons. Stocks fell sharply in early 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic took hold.
While in office, Trump often pointed out record highs for stocks, but in a campaign speech on Sunday the 2024 GOP front-runner said the stock market is now “making rich people richer.”
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